Companies

Banks, Central Banks, Companies, Currencies, Economics, International Developments, Markets 22/01/2020

UBS Outlook as of January 2020

Outlook (OSI*) Stimulus measures and easing of monetary policy (A) by central banks (1) contributed to a strong performance in financial markets in the fourth quarter and are likely to prevail. A favorable credit environment (2) and a partial resolution of trade disputes (3) should mitigate slowing global economic growth (4). (OSI*) While the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation remains uncertain, (Bullshit) for the first quarter we expect more typical seasonality…

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Companies 21/02/2019

Meier Tobler – 2021 wieder Ausschüttung von Dividenden in Aussicht – Ferguson noch mit 29.2% des Aktienkapitals grosser potentieller Verkäufer

Zwei interessante Punkte: Die Wiederaufnahme der Dividendenausschüttung ab dem Geschäftsjahr 2020 bzw. an der Generalversammlung 2021 wird weiterhin angestrebt.+Verschiebung im Aktionariat Nach dem Bilanzstichtag – per 25. Januar 2019 – erwarb Verwaltungsratspräsident Silvan G.-R. Meier 1.2 Mio. Aktien von Ferguson. Dies entspricht zehn Prozent des Aktienkapitals von Meier Tobler. Neu hält Silvan G.-R. Meier 43.6 Prozent der Aktien (direkt oder via Meier Capital). Die Beteiligung von Ferguson entspricht neu 29.2…

Companies, Economics, Investments, Market Timing, Markets, SMI Futures Trading, Technical View, War/Politics 04/02/2019

SMI PR Index 10-year and 30-year chart – Outlook 2019 and Considerations

To help me gage where the stock market in Switzerland is currently standing I find it useful to look at the price action over the last decade, and the last three decades for context. Trade & Geopolitical Newsflow In the last days many bearish articles have been published on websites like marketwatch.com, cash.ch and the mood generally is one of great caution ahead of possible geopolitical risks like Brexit (EU-UK),…

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Banks, Companies 01/07/2016

Disaster Zone Credit Suisse Strategic Resolution Unit – the Banks Trashcan

Credit Suisse speaks of core results and then separately of the revenues and expenses from the Strategic Resolution Unit (SRU). But they seem to use this wind-down unit for moving regular occuring problem loans and non-performing loans that were reported in other core units in previous quarters. (see graphs from the quartely reports near the bottom of this post, where movements are documented in the footnotes of the financial statements.)…

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Banks, Companies, Investments 27/06/2016

Bank CDS in Focus – Credit Suisse and UBS Credit Default Swaps Post-Brexit

Sometimes a good graph saves a lot of words. That’s why I’m posting these. Normally I’m no fan of CNBC, as they overdramatize to keep viewers and sell advertising. But I really liked their graphs! I just can’t imagine the moves in RBS, Barclays and Lloyds are justified. Interesting about this one; GS has held up better than Morgan Stanley and BofA. So this isn’t about revenue from europe for…

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Companies, Investments 02/04/2015

Goldbach Media (GBMN) – Golden Cross – 50-200SMA Crossover – Technical Breakout Setup

The shares of Goldbach Media (GBMN) look like they are setting up to breakout of their sideways path. Heavy volume and large off market transactions have occured in the last 2 weeks. The 50 (Single Moving Average = SMA; PURPLE) and the 200 (SMA; LIGHT GREEN) are close to crossing. When the 50 crosses above the 200, it’s called a “golden cross.” Generally, a buy signal is established when the shorter-term 50-day…

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Commodities, Companies, Investments, Markets 31/03/2015

Short Interest in Transocean (Symbol/Ticker RIGN RIG)

One of the reasons Transocean is so volatile: Short Interest; currently over 10 days would be needed to cover the short interest in Transocean.    Another reason Transocean shares are so volatile: Oil Price This makes Transocean an interesting candidate for an investor looking for exposure to the oil price and a change in sentiment (based for example on Transoceans financing becoming more solid, capital increases out the way etc)….

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Companies, Property 21/03/2015

Züblin Immobilien (ZUBN) – A play on ECB QE for 2015-2016

Züblin Immoblien has a large part of its property portfolio in France, Holland and Germany (next to Switzerland). As the company has announced it wants to sell the commercial properties in France, which are in somewhat of a slump, it can be expected that ECB QE will lead to more liquidity and therefor a higher probability of being able to sell the properties. As it’s currently not clear where the…