International Developments

Coronavirus put into Context to other Killers – Mortality Rate, Risk of Transmission

Ongoing other Killers: Malaria: Nearly half the world’s population lives in areas at risk of malaria transmission in 91 countries and territories. In 2016, malaria caused an estimated 216 million clinical episodes, and 445,000 deaths (0.2% Mortality vs clinical episodes) or 1,219 deaths per day . An estimated 90% of deaths in 2016 were in the WHO African Region. Drug-resistant diseases: Currently, at least 700,000 people die each year, or…

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UBS Outlook as of January 2020

Outlook (OSI*) Stimulus measures and easing of monetary policy (A) by central banks (1) contributed to a strong performance in financial markets in the fourth quarter and are likely to prevail. A favorable credit environment (2) and a partial resolution of trade disputes (3) should mitigate slowing global economic growth (4). (OSI*) While the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation remains uncertain, (Bullshit) for the first quarter we expect more typical seasonality…


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Gatwick Drones and the Impact on Airport Security Spending and Companies like DroneShield

Today DroneShield, an Australian company published the following comments: DroneShield’s cash receipts for the first three weeks of January 2019 were A$728,628. In other words, following the Gatwick events, in the first three weeks of the 2019 calendar year, DroneShield received approximately 50% more in cash than it did during the entire previous quarter. DroneShield believes that, due to the events at the Gatwick Airport in the UK, December was…


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SMI – no recession priced

Looking at the above chart and comparing the current move to what we saw in 2008 and 2009 I believe the reaction so far is much too weak to signal a bottom. It’s more likely to be a drawn out process of sideways without negative news, then down on actual impact of heavy handed EU reactions. Should the EU make Britain a good deal, then we’re off to the races…


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US – Ukraine Arms Deals Pipeline

The US Motto: Let me wet my beak I suppose if you’re interested in selling lots of expensive military equipment to the Ukraine (well at least the west of the Ukraine) to defend against a Russian Aggressor in the future, then you should start preparing the terrain by drawing up a list of people they don’t like and try and in turn make their life more difficult. Maybe the new…