Central Banks

EZB überschreitet verfassungsmässigen Kompetenzen

Es geht offenbar bei Zentralbanken vermehrt nicht mehr verfassungsmässig zu und her. Die Anleihenkaufprogramme gehen im Endeffekt doch auf die verpönte monetäre Staatsfinanzierung zu. Die Risiken nehmen ständig zu und akzentuieren sich in der aktuellen Lage besonders. Die Zentralbanken bewegen sich in Richtung Zombie, also einem besessenen Wesen ausserhalb der vorgesehenen Schranken sowie ohne Volks- oder Verfassungskontrolle. Die untenstehende Pressemitteilung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts in Karlsruhe kann als Warnhinweis für die grundsätzliche…

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Hyperinflation Bubble Pre-Lude

Hyperinflation becoming increasingly probable outcome of central bank policy

The warning signs are increasing that the current central bank policy is unsustainable. The big question is how do you protect yourself from hyperinflation and current central bank policies. Which are the junk central banks, which the junk currencies and how do you know which countries central banks are setting themselves up for hyperinflation? Feel free to comment! This opinion piece from the South China Morning Post has some great…

UBS Outlook as of January 2020

Outlook (OSI*) Stimulus measures and easing of monetary policy (A) by central banks (1) contributed to a strong performance in financial markets in the fourth quarter and are likely to prevail. A favorable credit environment (2) and a partial resolution of trade disputes (3) should mitigate slowing global economic growth (4). (OSI*) While the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation remains uncertain, (Bullshit) for the first quarter we expect more typical seasonality…

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China als Wachstumsmotor der Welt – Bremsen 2018 bis 2020 sinnvoll

In einem Artikel in der F.A.Z. vom 9.1.2018 hat Uwe Marx folgendes geschrieben: “Die größten Erfolgsgeschichten schrieben die deutschen Maschinenbauer zuletzt im Ausland, in China zum Beispiel. Ein Wachstum der Ausfuhren in das Riesenreich um mehr als 20 Prozent hat selbst den VDMA überrascht. Der 19. Parteitag der Kommunistischen Partei sei einer der Gründe gewesen, denn diese habe das Land zur Versammlung der KP Chinas in voller Blüte präsentieren wollen….

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ECB data shows Italy, France, Greece, Spain most active propping up their bond markets

Looking at this data showing central banks most active propping up bonds in the euro area and the comparing to what “pure play private banks” like Julius Baer hold on their balance sheet does make you wonder about the sustainability of the ECB purchases and what effect it has on the bond market. The data below shows what Julius Baer invests billions in. Especially debt instruments and there financial institution…

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SMI – no recession priced

Looking at the above chart and comparing the current move to what we saw in 2008 and 2009 I believe the reaction so far is much too weak to signal a bottom. It’s more likely to be a drawn out process of sideways without negative news, then down on actual impact of heavy handed EU reactions. Should the EU make Britain a good deal, then we’re off to the races…

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SNB: Credit Suisse and UBS need to take action

From the SNB Stability Report At the end of the first quarter of 2016, both big banks were fully compliant with the initial TBTF2 phase-in requirements, which come into effect on 1 July 2016. To meet the corresponding look-through requirements by the beginning of 2020, however, the big banks need to take action – particularly in meeting the leverage ratio requirements and the gone-concern requirements. As regards risk-weighted going-concern requirements,…

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The first rate Hike Since 2006 puts Fed on historic path – Dow Intraday

Vanguards comment: As this has been a widely anticipated decision, we do not expect any material impact on financial conditions in the short term. Indeed, we view the Federal Reserve’s decision as an unequivocal positive for both long-term investors and for savers. In our opinion, those who claim that raising rates is a “policy mistake” that may derail the U.S. recovery underappreciate the still-accommodative stance of monetary policy and the…

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Volatility in the aftermath of the SNB decision to lift FX floor on EURCHF

The following two charts illustrate the increased volatility that can be observed since the SNB decision was taken to cancel the floor on EURCHF. Even though the two charts are intraday charts of January 27th 2015. Chart 2 shows that after 9am CET the FX rate is suddenly extremely volatile. At the same the chart 1 shows that the SMI moved up as the CHF strengthend and then also weakened…

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Swiss Winners of the SNB Decision January 15th; Phoenix Mecano

If you’re interested in which companies are not suffering as a result of the SNB decision, here’s one: Phoenix Mecano has lost just 1% as of today (Jan 20th) vs the SMI drop of ~12% (figure 1). If you were to just look at figure 2, showing Phoenix Mecano revenue by country, and knowing the company is Switzerland based, you would assume that they were going to suffer due to…