June 2016

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Bank CDS in Focus – Credit Suisse and UBS Credit Default Swaps Post-Brexit

Sometimes a good graph saves a lot of words. That’s why I’m posting these. Normally I’m no fan of CNBC, as they overdramatize to keep viewers and sell advertising. But I really liked their graphs! I just can’t imagine the moves in RBS, Barclays and Lloyds are justified. Interesting about this one; GS has held up better than Morgan Stanley and BofA. So this isn’t about revenue from europe for…


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24. Juni – Wo war die Action bei Aktien

Die folgenden 3 Auflistungen zeigen schnell und gut wo welche Aktionäre am 24. Juni 2016 getroffen werden, wurden. Aufgefallen ist mir: Syngenta hat die Übernahme aus China praktisch ausgepreist. Pharma ist der Fels in der Brandung Banken handeln, als wären Milliardenverluste sicher


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SMI Future am 24. Juni 2016

Interessante Tatsachen: Noch vor Börseneröffnung waren die besten Kaufkurse. Innerhalb von 15 Minuten nach Future Handelseröffnung um 8.00 Uhr war bereits 1% korrigiert. Innernhalb von 60 Minuten und  bei Akiten Handelseröffnung um 09.00 Uhr waren bereits 2% korrigiert. Innerhalb von 90 Minuten waren 4% der Korrektur bereits wieder ausgepreist. Innerhalb von 180 Minuten hat der SMI Future um fast 6% zugelegt, im Vergleich zur Eröffnung. Anekdote: Um 8.10 Uhr versuchte ich…


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SMI – no recession priced

Looking at the above chart and comparing the current move to what we saw in 2008 and 2009 I believe the reaction so far is much too weak to signal a bottom. It’s more likely to be a drawn out process of sideways without negative news, then down on actual impact of heavy handed EU reactions. Should the EU make Britain a good deal, then we’re off to the races…


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Seeing opportunity when others see negative headlines; example a cat in Ermatingen (where my business is based)

The last few days the Thurgau has been hit by heavy rainfall leading to light flooding. Reading the papers you’d get the impression this was just a horrible time for everyone. But it’s not. I have not seen more kids playing along the lakefront in the last 4 years. The puddles or flooded road sections and gardens are an absoulte treat for them: Close to home, safe (more or less)….


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Credit Suisse Group soon Speculative Grade

It’s my job to protect my customers interests. That’s why I follow credit ratings on where they have their money. Now Credit Suisse is looking more and more like a gamble not worth taking: Scale Investment Grade S&P Moodys Minimal CR AAA Aaa ZKB, Schwyzer KB, Aargauische KB, Zuger KB Very Low CR AA+ Aa1 St. Galler KB, Baselllandschaftliche KB, Schaffhauser KB, Graubündner KB, Luzerner KB AA Aa2 Julis Bär, Pictet…


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SNB: Credit Suisse and UBS need to take action

From the SNB Stability Report At the end of the first quarter of 2016, both big banks were fully compliant with the initial TBTF2 phase-in requirements, which come into effect on 1 July 2016. To meet the corresponding look-through requirements by the beginning of 2020, however, the big banks need to take action – particularly in meeting the leverage ratio requirements and the gone-concern requirements. As regards risk-weighted going-concern requirements,…