December 2014


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Kuoni – Reasons to be Bullish?

Todays FAZ carried an article about the renaissance of travel agents. In a seperate news article Hotelplan has announced it is in the black for the first time in 5 years. Here’s a 5 year chart of Kuoni (KUNN SW): Important areas; CHF 210-220 / CHF 250 / CHF 300. We’re currently a few percentage points below the CHF 300 level. The green line depics the performance of the SMI….


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Swiss Banks 2015 SMI Targets/Forecasts

This graph shows the levels Swiss Banks have as targets/forcasts for the Swiss Market Index SMI for 2015. Bank SMI % Today 8900 Credit Suisse 9600 7.87% Julius Bär 9200 3.37% ZKB 9800 10.11% Vontobel 9900 11.24% Raiffeisen 9400 5.62% Pictet 9370 5.28% J. Safra Sarasin 9600 7.87% Average 7.34%  



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ECB Balance Sheet; Correlation of Gold Price and ETF Volume; Dividend Impact vs Price Return Graph

The two graphs below show nicely why the ECB was the odd one out in the recent central bank balance sheet expansion effort to inflate all problems away. The gold price and the boom of the ETF market for commodities simulataneously came to a climax. Many market participants now believe USD 1000 level will be tested which currently works out as a 20% drop. The chart of the dax –…