Monthly Archives: December 2014

Kuoni – Reasons to be Bullish?

Todays FAZ carried an article about the renaissance of travel agents.

renaissance_der_reisebüros_kuoni_2

renaissance_der_reisebüros_kuoni

In a seperate news article Hotelplan has announced it is in the black for the first time in 5 years.

Here’s a 5 year chart of Kuoni (KUNN SW): Important areas; CHF 210-220 / CHF 250 / CHF 300. We’re currently a few percentage points below the CHF 300 level. The green line depics the performance of the SMI.

kuoni-5year-stock-equity-chart_2009-2014

 

Swiss Banks 2015 SMI Targets/Forecasts

This graph shows the levels Swiss Banks have as targets/forcasts for the Swiss Market Index SMI for 2015.swiss-bank-smi-target-2015-outlook-smi-level

Bank SMI %
Today 8900
Credit Suisse 9600 7.87%
Julius Bär 9200 3.37%
ZKB 9800 10.11%
Vontobel 9900 11.24%
Raiffeisen 9400 5.62%
Pictet 9370 5.28%
J. Safra Sarasin 9600 7.87%
Average 7.34%

 

ECB Balance Sheet; Correlation of Gold Price and ETF Volume; Dividend Impact vs Price Return Graph

The two graphs below show nicely why the ECB was the odd one out in the recent central bank balance sheet expansion effort to inflate all problems away.

bilanzsumme_der_ezb_2014_1 entwicklung_der_bilanzsummen_vergleich_2014_1

The gold price and the boom of the ETF market for commodities simulataneously came to a climax. Many market participants now believe USD 1000 level will be tested which currently works out as a 20% drop.gold-price-vs-etf-investments-in-gold-2014

The chart of the dax – once the price return, once the the total return including dividends – shows clearly that without dividends the capital appreciation of equities has been unimpressive. But as is common knowledge dividends make up the lions share of long term profits, if reinvested. That’s one reason I’m always adamant that investors choose investments where they receive the full dividend and can reclaim witholding taxes etc. Over the long term those basis points add up to be very very meaningful.why_dividends_are_important_2014_dax_index_example 10-year-bond-yields_2014_poland_czechrepublic_germany