November 2014



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Charts & Graphs: Japan

As Japan has been in the news lately and the Nikkei has been very volatile I will post some graphs and charts to Japan in this post.


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The Importance of Russia

Two graphs that show how important Russia is for the commodities markets (Graph 1: example Oil Market; Russia #1) but also as a market for western (european) producers of machines, tech and so on (Graph 2: fall in exports to Russia from Germany; over EUR 4bn turnover less vs 2013 in 2014!).


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Crude Oil Graphs 2014 – Market Crude Prices; World Oil Supply; OPEC Crude Oil Supply, World Oil Demand

    Oil fell for a third month straight in September with Brent breaking through $90/bbl in October, on abundant supply, slowing demand growth and a strong US dollar. Brent prices have fallen by over 20% since June, when turmoil in Iraq lifted prices to $116/bbl, and were last at a near four-year low of $88.70/bbl. NYMEX WTI was at $85.20/bbl. The forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised…


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Technical View – November 14th 2014 – Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

The graphs below are just to give the reader an idea of what some macro factors and commodities like gold are looking like and what an indicator like the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is doing on german running yield. MACD positive divergence is said to be a precursor for countertrend moves, according to technical analysts (see running yield graph below and this article on the MACD positive divergence topic here).  Also…


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Technical View – November 13th 2014

Some interesting graphs; 5DMA, Optimism Survey, VIX, Tsy yield. These are of course only relevant if you are not on a multi year investment plan (which incidentally is the advice most people should adhere to) and are momentum driven (5DMA could be rolling over) for example or are interested in market psychology (VIX, sentiment).


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Single Factor Strategies – Example Dividend Strategy Mandate

If a client wishes to entrust me with a Single Factor Strategy – Dividend mandate the first step would be to choose a current dividend yield and market(s) he would like to target. I would then analyse the current dividend yield, the historic dividend yield and then compile a portfolio, taking into account his investment horizon, diversification aspects, liquidity requirements and market cap. Periodic reviews would then follow, either at…


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Goldbach Media: from IFRS to Swiss GAAP FER

Another SIX listed company moving to Swiss GAAP FER from the notoriously inflexible and expensive IFRS (loved by auditors $$$). Previous examples from the third quarter 2013 were Meyer Burger and Burkhalter Holding and in the first quarter 2014 Kaba (see links at bottom of post). Goldbach Group changes over to Domestic Standard on 8 December 2014 Küsnacht-Zürich, 10.11.2014. On 7 November 2014, SIX Swiss Exchange approved the petition of…


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Investing for the Long Term – Equities are the way to go

This graph is important in my eyes as it shows that over the long term you will nearly always make more than 4% p.a. if invested in equities, the probability of not achieving the hurdle rate of 4% is close to zero, as shown by the turquoise line. It also shows that the probability of not achieving 4% p.a. with bonds is close to 100% over the long term as…