March 2014


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EURCHF FX – Price Level vs Volume Level – Heat Map Chart

Think this chart is great. It was presented by Dewet Moser, Alternate Member of the Governing Board of the SNB today at the SNB Apéro 2014. I swapped the captions from German to English. Very interesting to see how the heat map has turned cold with just short bursts of volume and price action two times in last 18 months. Such heat maps are useful in gaging investor psychology and key technical…



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Thurgauer Kantonalbank IPO 2014

Please note this is a post in relation to my current studies to become a CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst). According to my information (based on the press release) the Thurgauer Kantonalbank (TKB hereafter, Ticker: TKBP) is placing up to 2.5m PS (Partizipationsscheine = participation certificates) from today till April 4th. Share trading is expected to commence April 7th. Book building range: CHF 64 – 74. According to my calculations buyers…


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Myriad Financial Data HY 2013 vs HY 2012

The financial data for Myriad published today can be seen below. I’ve added the trend arrows (green and red) depending on whether direction is toward more loss (red) or less loss / profit (green). The financial data above is from the Financial Report. The data below from the press release. Note how the Gross margin differs significantly depending on whether it’s adjusted for amortisation, impairment and restructuring costs. “Revenue for…


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Sanctions vs Russia – Impact on European Companies

The impact of political uncertainity can be clearly felt in the time of terroritorial conflict. Russia is working on a law that will permit the russian state to confiscate foreign companies’ properties, merchandise, machines. In recent years many companies from Western Europe had invested heavily in Russia. As an emerging market or even frontier market in some regions it has a lot of potential which investors wanted to capitalise on….


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Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreements between Central Banks

Currency Swaps play an important role in smoothing currency volatility and therefore lowering uncertainity and thus reducing the cost of doing international business. The central banks enter into Swap agreements which in turn permit their commercial banks to have recourse to liquidity even in times of financial distress. Considering the Emerging Markets tension of late, the move by the Reserve Bank of Australia to enter a bilateral local currency swap…


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Cost of Turning Off a Nuclear Power Plant

Example: Cost of Shutting Down a Nuclear Power Plant in Germany Location: Obrigheim, Baden-Württemberg, Germany Size: 375 MW (one of the smallest) Type: Pressurized Water Reactor Cost: EUR 500 million (calculated, estimated) Mass: 275’000 tons that need to be chopped up (reduced to small pieces), part of that total needs to be decontaminated and packaged. 98% of the 275k tons can be re-entered into the regular waste cycle (recycable&reusable material,…


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Zalando – Greater Fool Theory Example? Or Amazon Competitor

In Mondays’ issue of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung there’s an article about the electronics distributor and retailer Conrad Electronic SE, which has 4000 employees and is run by the fourth generation of the Conrad family. Asked about Zalando Werner Conrad said: “Zalando leads consumers to believe that every item is delivered the next day and free of shipping charges. With return rates of 50% and more the business model can’t…


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Adjusted EPS and Adjusted Profit at Panalpina – An Ongoing Concern, Troubling Culture

Today Panalpina published the results above. Highlighted in yellow are the losses Panalpina has been incurring in last two years. It reminds me of several large banks in Switzerland who also have decent results, once you adjust for legal settlements/fines and goodwill adjustments. Not much good to investors though. Business is about bottom line – and above the reported EPS bottom line isn’t pretty! I would argue that the legal…