Category Archives: Commodities

Short Interest in Transocean (Symbol/Ticker RIGN RIG)

One of the reasons Transocean is so volatile:

Short Interest; currently over 10 days would be needed to cover the short interest in Transocean. transocean-rign-rig-short-interest-2015-2014

 

transocean-3-year-stock-chart-2014-2015

Another reason Transocean shares are so volatile:

Oil Price

crude-oil-3-year-chart-2012-2015

This makes Transocean an interesting candidate for an investor looking for exposure to the oil price and a change in sentiment (based for example on Transoceans financing becoming more solid, capital increases out the way etc).

6month Chart indicates a leveling off of selling pressure:

transocean-6month-chart-2014-2015

 

ECB Balance Sheet; Correlation of Gold Price and ETF Volume; Dividend Impact vs Price Return Graph

The two graphs below show nicely why the ECB was the odd one out in the recent central bank balance sheet expansion effort to inflate all problems away.

bilanzsumme_der_ezb_2014_1 entwicklung_der_bilanzsummen_vergleich_2014_1

The gold price and the boom of the ETF market for commodities simulataneously came to a climax. Many market participants now believe USD 1000 level will be tested which currently works out as a 20% drop.gold-price-vs-etf-investments-in-gold-2014

The chart of the dax – once the price return, once the the total return including dividends – shows clearly that without dividends the capital appreciation of equities has been unimpressive. But as is common knowledge dividends make up the lions share of long term profits, if reinvested. That’s one reason I’m always adamant that investors choose investments where they receive the full dividend and can reclaim witholding taxes etc. Over the long term those basis points add up to be very very meaningful.why_dividends_are_important_2014_dax_index_example 10-year-bond-yields_2014_poland_czechrepublic_germany

The Importance of Russia

Two graphs that show how important Russia is for the commodities markets (Graph 1: example Oil Market; Russia #1) but also as a market for western (european) producers of machines, tech and so on (Graph 2: fall in exports to Russia from Germany; over EUR 4bn turnover less vs 2013 in 2014!).

The Worlds Largest Oil Producers 2014

German Exports To Russia Fall 2014

Crude Oil Graphs 2014 – Market Crude Prices; World Oil Supply; OPEC Crude Oil Supply, World Oil Demand

market-crude-prices-iea world-oil-supply-iea opec-crude-oil-supply-graph-iea world-oil-demand-ieamarket-crude-spreads-graph-iea Retirements of nuclear power capacity

  • Oil fell for a third month straight in September with Brent breaking through $90/bbl in October, on abundant supply, slowing demand growth and a strong US dollar. Brent prices have fallen by over 20% since June, when turmoil in Iraq lifted prices to $116/bbl, and were last at a near four-year low of $88.70/bbl. NYMEX WTI was at $85.20/bbl.
  • The forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised 0.2 mb/d lower since last month’s Report, to 92.4 mb/d,on reduced expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected at 0.7 mb/d in 2014, rising tentatively to 1.1 mb/d in 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
  • Global supply rose by almost 910 kb/d in September to 93.8 mb/d, on higher OPEC and non-OPEC output. Compared with a year earlier, total supply stood 2.8 mb/d higher, as OPEC supply swung back to growth and amplified robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to average 1.3 mb/d 2015.
  • OPEC crude oil output surged to a 13-month high in September, led by Libya’s continued recovery and higher Iraqi flows. Production rose 415 kb/d from August to 30.66 mb/d. A weaker demand outlook cut the ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ by 200 kb/d for 2015 to 29.3 mb/d. The ‘call’ declines seasonally by 1.5 mb/d from 4Q14 to 1Q15.
  • Global refinery crude demand hit new highs in August, near 79 mb/d, with OECD runs leading the uptick. The onset of seasonal plant maintenance sees runs fall through October, taking global crude runs to 77.5 mb/d in 4Q14 from 78.1 mb/d in 3Q14, with year-on-year growth rising over the same period to 1.4 mb/d from 0.9 mb/d.
  • OECD commercial total oil inventories built by 37.7 mb over August, to 2 698 mb, narrowing the five-year-average deficit to 38.1 mb, from 67.1 mb one month earlier. Preliminary data indicate that inventories rose counter-seasonally by 14.0 mb over September, led by a steep 11.7 mb build in middle distillates.

source: iea

 

The Worlds largest Oil Producers