Market Timing

SMI PR Index 10-year and 30-year chart – Outlook 2019 and Considerations

To help me gage where the stock market in Switzerland is currently standing I find it useful to look at the price action over the last decade, and the last three decades for context. Trade & Geopolitical Newsflow In the last days many bearish articles have been published on websites like marketwatch.com, cash.ch and the mood generally is one of great caution ahead of possible geopolitical risks like Brexit (EU-UK),…

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Deja Vu with Brexit – Standard Life Fund Freeze – Pre Bear Stearns Moment – the Lehman Moment can still come

If you like working through the worst case scenario it would probably be sensible to consider the Brexit Vote the beginning of problems to come. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/standard-lifes-29bn-commercial-property-fund-halts-trading-as-wi/   (Telegraph Group Business Editor James Quinn is doing a great job of reporting effects of Brexit!) Trading in a £2.9bn commercial property portfolio managed by Standard Life Investments has been halted after a flood of withdrawals exhausted the fund’s cash reserves. Standard Life said…


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SMI Future am 24. Juni 2016

Interessante Tatsachen: Noch vor Börseneröffnung waren die besten Kaufkurse. Innerhalb von 15 Minuten nach Future Handelseröffnung um 8.00 Uhr war bereits 1% korrigiert. Innernhalb von 60 Minuten und  bei Akiten Handelseröffnung um 09.00 Uhr waren bereits 2% korrigiert. Innerhalb von 90 Minuten waren 4% der Korrektur bereits wieder ausgepreist. Innerhalb von 180 Minuten hat der SMI Future um fast 6% zugelegt, im Vergleich zur Eröffnung. Anekdote: Um 8.10 Uhr versuchte ich…


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Re-opening of Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II – A Good Sign

I follow this value investment company as they are one of the oldest and most venerable ones out there. From there recent press release: *** Re-opening of Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II The Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II – Currency Unhedged will reopen to new investors on February 1, 2016. As you will recall, the Fund was closed to new investors back in August of 2014, as it…





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Importance of FX – Trading Gains when in Cash with Foreign Exchange Transactions

I was pleasantly surprised looking at a private account I have, which is extremely small in net assets. It’s an account that is pretty much dormant, except when in January there were major moves on the CHF Swiss Franc, I decided to buy EUR, USD and GBP. The chart above shows what just that move did. Interestingly that account did better than one I manage equities actively in. Nearly double…


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Why Value Investing is a Good Choice for Your Nerves

The chart above illustrates very well, why value investing is a superior way of investing long term. For example the Global Value Fund (Tweedy, Browne) has been able to outperform in down and normal markets (left, center) and only underperformed in strong markets (right). When M&A gets heated you’ll be feeling pain, potentially, with a value investing portfolio or fund. But when the rainy days do come, you’ll have the…


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(Partially) Hedging a Portfolio with Futures or Options to reduce Volatility and to a lesser extent Return

After having gone short futures for a client portfolio recently, I needed to explain what effect such a tactical decision has on the portfolio in question to the clients beneficiaries. Below is a graphical representation of what happens when you hedge part of a portfolio (in a very specific example, this would need to be calculated for each portfolio that was being considered for a hedge). Firstly the expected volatility…