Category Archives: Technical View

SMI drop of 10-12% ahead?

Looking at this chart, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sudden and fast drop down to 6800 – 7000 level.

I’m acutally long with clients. But just looking at the chart and thinking of the momentum and positioning, that might be a real possibility.

That would be a great buying opportunity considering 1) high dividend yields,  2) low interest rates, 3) support of low oil price for world economy.

SMI-chart-2011-2016

This chart I saw on marketwatch.com would also point to room to the downside:

value-of-us-companies-total-equity-and-debts

Technical View – November 14th 2014 – Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

The graphs below are just to give the reader an idea of what some macro factors and commodities like gold are looking like and what an indicator like the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is doing on german running yield.

MACD positive divergence is said to be a precursor for countertrend moves, according to technical analysts (see running yield graph below and this article on the MACD positive divergence topic here).  Also below are the year on year chart of Gold (USD, New York Spot Price) and the deposit rate of the ECB (8-year graph).

german-running-yield-macd

 

ecb-deposit-rate-2006-2014-historic-graph gold-price-2014-spot-price-new-york-in-USD

Technical View – November 13th 2014

Some interesting graphs; 5DMA, Optimism Survey, VIX, Tsy yield. These are of course only relevant if you are not on a multi year investment plan (which incidentally is the advice most people should adhere to) and are momentum driven (5DMA could be rolling over) for example or are interested in market psychology (VIX, sentiment).

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